Here’s what smart people are saying about what the failed US-Iran peace talks and Trump’s blockade mean for markets
13.04.2026
Vice President JD Vance said on Sunday that marathon peace talks with Iran’s delegation did not lead to a peace agreement.
Jacquelyn Martin – Pool/Getty Images
The US and Iran failed to reach an agreement on Saturday after marathon peace talks in Pakistan.
President Trump said the US will enforce a blockade effective immediately.
Here’s how smart people in business are responding to the development.
The US and Iran remained at a standstill after 21 hours of peace talks between the two delegations failed to reach an agreement, Vice President JD Vance announced at a press conference in Islamabad early on Sunday.
In response, President Donald Trump said the US would enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas and oil supply passes through that waterway, which sits off Iran’s coast. The ongoing military conflict, which began in February, has effectively halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, sending gas and jet fuel prices skyrocketing.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday.
Here’s what people in business are saying about the failed negotiations.
Patrick De Haan
Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that the lack of a peace deal likely means oil prices will continue to rise as the Strait remains under Iran’s control.
“With the US not coming to agreement or terms with Iran, it is likely that the Strait will remain under their control and that oil prices and thus gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices keep rising due to the likely continued closure of the Strait,” he wrote, later adding, “Not looking good for fuel prices globally.”
Marko Kolanovic
Marko Kolanovic, a former JPMorgan chief market strategist, wrote in an X post: “The peace deal that I identified as unrealistic (i.e. fake when announced) caused Oil to drop ~15%, broad stock to rally ~5%, tech momentum stocks ~25%. Now exposed as such – Oil and stocks should retrace that move (+75mb of Oil was lost in time wasted). Crash is quite possible.”
In a reply on X to a post that questioned Vance’s assertion that the talks failed over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Kolanovic said: “Exactly, hence likely no taco as they are already selling to public why it failed. It’s his famous ‘nuclear west in supermarket’ and how he justifies war to himself. I’m sure Iran would have agreed with favorable hormuz/sanctions outcome.”
Kyle Rodda
Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com, told Bloomberg: “The key question for Monday is whether markets interpret this as a temporary breakdown in negotiations or a structural collapse of the ceasefire framework. That distinction will determine whether the risk-off move fades quickly or extends further.”
Charu Chanana
Charu Chanana, the chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying: “The talks ending without a deal is a setback. For markets, this means the relief trade is likely to fade. Oil may see fresh gains, risk sentiment takes a hit again, and Hormuz is likely to remain a live choke-point risk even if it is not fully shut.”
Ron Insana
Ron Insana, a former hedge fund executive and financial journalist, said America’s blockade could impact the stock market and oil prices.
“A U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was announced by President Trump in the wake of failed talks with Iran yesterday. One assumes a ‘risk-off market in stocks and a surge in oil prices when futures open, but who knows? Iran AND the U.S. now blocking the flow of oil,” Insana wrote in an X post on Sunday.
Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor, the chief market strategist at Futurum Equities, said the blockade “immediately raises the risk of a much broader escalation around global oil flows” in an X post on Sunday.
In a separate post, Boloor said, “Oil is now indicating a +7% move higher after Trump said the U.S. Navy will begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz.”
Don Johnson
Don Johnson, the chief economist at wealth management firm Macro Edge Advisory Group, wrote on X that the blockade is “the largest supply shock with nothing even coming close.”
“A renewed escalation scenario means boots on the ground in the next couple of weeks, and keep an eye on the Red Sea… a ‘lose lose’ scenario for the globe if this worsens further.… or a ‘reset’?” Johnson wrote in a separate X post.
Jorge Montepeque
Oil markets are significantly underpricing the risks stemming from the failed US-Iran talks and the prospect of an American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Jorge Montepeque, a managing director at the energy and commodities market maker Onyx Capital Group.
Oil prices rose sharply to as much as $104 to $106 a barrel after the failed talks. Montepeque told Bloomberg TV that such levels are “not reflective at all” of what could happen if the US follows through with a blockade. He said prices should be closer to $140-$150 to reflect the scale of the potential disruption.
Montepeque said traders have remained relatively calm as many expect the policy to be reversed under pressure, but he warned there is not enough global supply to offset losses from Hormuz disruptions. That would force prices higher to curb demand, potentially pushing oil toward $150 to $200 a barrel.
